The results show momentum in Budd’s direction compared to other recent polling. A Civitas poll from September showed the race a statistical dead heat — 44 percent support for each candidate. The WRAL-TV poll – released around the same time – gave Budd a 43 to 42 percent advantage over Beasley.
“Although it is still competitive, Ted Budd is the favorite to win North Carolina’s U.S. Senate election based on our latest poll numbers,” said Dr. Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research.
A crucial shift in the electorate appears to be developing among female voters. In early September, Beasley topped Budd among this electorate 52 to 41 percent, but the new polling shows that margin has shrunk.
That shift reflects a growing national trend as well. A recent article in the New York Times noted a seismic change in the generic ballot among female voters — from favoring Democrats by 14 percentage points in September to now backing Republicans by 18 percentage points. The results showed that the economy remains top-of-mind for voters, despite intense campaigning from Democrats to excite their base on issues ranging from abortion to the January 6th riots.
Jim Stirling, research fellow at the John Locke Foundation, cautioned that the ECU results should be taken with a grain of salt until future polls confirm the trendline.
“That being said, both Democrat and Republican national pollsters alike have expressed the decreasing motivation of Democratic voters. Coupling that with Budd consistently leading in the eastern part of the state could mean he runs away with this election,” opined Stirling.
The ECU poll broke down the results among components of the electorate. Budd maintains an advantage among men 54 to 39 percent; and among working- class white voters – 72 to 22 percent, while Beasley has the edge among young voters 48 to 42 percent, and holds down a sizable lead among black voters 83 to 11 percent.
Asked ‘which party’ they would support on a generic ballot for congressional races, 49 percent said Republican and 44 percent Democrat. This trendline is also favoring the GOP after a summer slump. In addition, President Joe Biden’s approval rating is slumping after a brief uptick, now down to 38 percent from 44 percent in early September.
The ECU poll was conducted Oct. 10-13 with a sample of 902 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.
