State’s revenue ‘shortfall’ media-created myth

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Paul "Skip" Stam

Paul “Skip” Stam

By Paul “Skip” Stam | Special to Nor’eastern News

RALEIGH – We read numerous editorials decrying the STATE’S revenue “shortfall” this year. This is always coupled with complaints about particular tax rate cuts from the historic 2013 tax reform. But there is no shortfall in revenue.

The cautious conservative “consensus” revenue forecast for the general fund for FY 2014 -15 is $20,730,100,000. This is $586 MILLION more than the revenue collected in FY 2013-14 – a 2.9 percent increase.

For that same time period. the inflation plus population growth estimated by Fiscal Staff of the General Assembly is between 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent. In other words, after controlling for population and inflation, we are likely to have just as much revenue in 2014-15 as we did in 2013-14.


There is no revenue shortfall. There is a shortfall only of expectations on the part of those who want to grow state government. Please bear these figures in mind as you read news reports of legislative happenings.