Is our nation headed for another recession? Some experts think so!
Reporters Note: There are various reports in the media about the prospects for a recession in the United States. Some experts have gone so far as to claim that we are on the verge of a currency collapse. In view of the divergent opinions, The County Compass has undertaken an evaluation of this issue by reviewing the positions of numerous financial experts and comparing their views to actions by Governments and Central Banks whose actions will influence the prospects for a financial downturn.
Who Are The Experts?
There are a great number of Economists and Financial Investors that we have consulted. For the most part, experts on the Political Right tend to express opinion on the negative influences in the economy. While experts of the Political Left tend not to express an opinion. Generally, those on the Political Right are less in favor of big government and those on the Left tend to support big government. These divergent political views may or may not have a bearing on their views about the overall economy.
Our chosen experts are as follows:
Jim Rodgers: Mr. Rodgers is a former partner with George Soros in the Quantum Fund and he is the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index. Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of Economics. In 2007, Rodgers relocated from the United States to Singapore. He has been a guest speaker at Economic Forums all over the world as well as on numerous TV programs dealing with the economy.
Porter Stansbury: Mr. Stansbury is a financial publisher and author. He founded Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, which was the forerunner of Stansberry Research. Based in Baltimore, he is the author of the monthly newsletter, Stansberry’s Investment Advisory, which covers investments and investment theory in commodities, real estate, and the stock market.
Doug Ramsey: Mr. Ramsey is Chief Investment Officer at the Leuthold Group based in Minneapolis. He has been with the firm for a decade and became Chief Investment Officer after the retirement in 2011 of the original founder, Steve Leuthold.
Paul Krugman: Mr. Krugman is an American Economist and Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and an op-Ed columnist for The New York Times. In 2008, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography. The Prize Committee cited his work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic distribution of economic activity by examining the effects of economics of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services. Krugman is known in academia for his work on international economics, including trade theory, economic geography and international finance. He is a former professor of economics at MIT as well as at Princeton University. He has written over 20 books including scholarly works, textbooks and books for a more general audience, and has published over 200 scholarly articles in professional journals and edited volumes.
Peter Schiff: Mr. Schiff is an American stockbroker, author and one-time Senate candidate. He has appeared as a guest on numerous financial television shows and has been quoted in major print publications as a financial analyst and economist. He is CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Bureau Pacific Capital Inc. located in Westport Connecticut and is founder of numerous other financial investments funds outside of the United States. He voices strong support for the Austrian School of Economic thought, which is the same theory favored by Jim Rogers mentioned above.
Harry Dent: Mr. Dent is the Founder of HS Dent Investment Management, an investment firm based in Tampa. He advises, and markets, the Dent Strategic Portfolio Fund mutual fund and he is also president and founder of the Dent Research and H.S. Dent Publishing. He authors and promotes a regular economic newsletter, which focuses on generational consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets. He has written nine books – two of the most recent having become bestsellers!
In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese Economy, then the darling of the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In the early 1990s he predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach 10,000. Both of these predictions were met with much skepticism, yet both eventually came to pass.
David Stockman: Mr. Stockman is a former businessman and U.S. politician who served as a Republican U.S. representative from the state of Michigan and was later appointed as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. He was elected to the House of Representatives for the 95th Congress and was reelected twice, until his resignation in 1981 to accept appointment to the Reagan Administration.
After leaving government, Stockman joined the Wall Street investment bank Solomon Brothers and later became a partner in the New York-based private equity company, the Blackstone Group. He had a mixed record with Blackstone. He resigned from Blackstone to start his own private equity fund company, Heartland Industrial Partners based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Steve Moore: Mr. Moore formerly wrote on the economy and public policy for The Wall Street Journal. He is the Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Project for Economic growth, at The Heritage Foundation. While at the Journal, he was a member of the editorial board and returned to Heritage in January 2014. Moore has focuses on advancing public policies that increase the rate of economic growth to help the United States retain its position as the global economic superpower. He also works on budget, fiscal and monetary policy and showcases states governments in this country that do what it takes to achieve fiscal stability.
George Soros: Mr. Soros is a Hungarian-American business magnate. He is an investor, philanthropist, and author who holds dual citizenship in both countries. He is chairman of the Soros Fund Management and is known by some as “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England.” Soros is a well-known supporter of American progressive and American liberal political causes. He has donated billions of dollars to various philanthropic causes and he is also played a significant role in the peaceful transition from communism to capitalism in Eastern Europe. His former partner in the Quantum Fund is Jim Rogers.
Art Laffer: Mr. Laffer first gained prominence during the Reagan Administration as a member of the Reagan Economic Policy Advisory Board. He is best known for the Laffer Curve — an illustration that increasing tax rates beyond a certain point will be counter-productive for raising further tax revenues.
He is the author and co-author of many books and newspaper articles, including Supply Side Economics: Financial Decision-Making for the 80s. He is policy co-chair of the Free Enterprise Fund with Larry Kudlow and serves on the “Board of Scholars “of the American Legislative Exchange Council.
While teaching at the USC Marshall School of Business, Laffer played a key role in writing California Proposition 13, the property-tax Initiative that inspired a tax revolt across the nation.
Larry Kudlow: Mr. Kudlow is an American conservative economist, television personality and newspaper columnist. He hosts The Kudlow Report on CNBC. As a syndicated columnist, his articles appear in numerous newspapers and websites, including his own blog, Kudlow’s Money Politics. He and fellow economist Art Laffer are policy co-chairs of the Free Enterprise Fund.
He has been a member of the board of directors of Empower America, a supply-side economics organization founded in 1993 and merged in 2004 with the Citizens for a Sound Economy to form FreedomWorks. Kudlow is also consulting chief economist for American Skandia Life Assurance Company, a subsidiary of insurance giant Prudential Financial.
There are a great many economists and economic prognosticators all over the world with opinions about the future of the world economy in general and the U.S. economy in particular. The list of experts noted herein, have a worldview that is similar in many instances and certainly the conclusions they have reached about the Core Subject of this article are wide ranging. We could have examined the viewpoint of many more experts than the ones that we have listed here. But we have attempted to provide a broad cross-section of available thinking on the International and United States economy with respect to the suggested coming recession.
All of the comments that have been taken for this article, while of fairly recent vintage, do not necessarily reflect the prospect of a change in our political leadership in the coming presidential election. However, there are some basic elements of the International Economy, which have a bearing on the economy in this country and therefore will be an influencing factor in the recession in this country regardless of who is president after November.
In the coming weeks, we will elaborate about what these experts believe will be the basis of a recession in the United States and how that recession is influenced from outside the country and what influences the recession will have outside of this country.
We wish to remind our readers that the views of the experts that we will refer to, for the purposes of this article, are the opinions of the individuals and not the personal belief of anyone on the County Compass staff.
See you next week.